Financial Summary
What follows are the results of the projections made by The Bali Homes in collaboration with Arthabase. We use real-world data from OTA platforms and our own experience and understanding of the market to find properties with similar characteristics and analyse their performance to use as a benchmark.
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Insider tip: A leasehold villa yielding above 10% net is performing above market average. 10% is typical and below that it is underperforming.
Payback Period
9.3 yrs
Time to recover initial investment.
Yearly Net Yield
10.7%
Average annual net return.
Yearly Net Income
$53,658
Average net operational profit.
Average Daily Rate
$389
Average rental revenue per occupied night (ADR).
Lease Duration
32 yrs
Total lease term excluding extensions.
Avg. Occupancy
75.7%
Average occupancy rate.
The following chart shows your cumulative cash flow over time and your break-even point. Our model accounts for slight inflation over time and any assumption beyond a 5–10 year time frame is to be considered purely indicative.
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Insider tip: A payback period of 7–10 years is what, in most cases, is more realistic. Be wary of market operators claiming 4–5 year payback periods and 15–20%+ ROI consistently as it is unrealistic.
Cumulative Cash Flow (32 years)
Seasonality Analysis
The following is a calendar and related chart that shows fluctuations in revenue during the year due to the seasonality of Bali as a destination for tourists. If we made this report custom for you and you occupy your villa during a specific time period, the potential revenue for that month is subtracted and the results are influenced.
Seasonal Profile
JanHigh
FebLow
MarLow
AprMid
MayMid
JunHigh
JulHigh
AugHigh
SepMid
OctLow
NovLow
DecHigh
High – High season rate and occupancy
Mid – Average of high and low
Low – Low season rate and occupancy
Owner – Owner occupied, $0 revenue
Monthly Financial Breakdown — 5-Year Average
Annual Financial Performance
Revenue, operational costs and net profits for this villa.
Avg. Yearly Revenue
$107,317
Average total revenue per year from operations in first 5 years.
Cost / Revenue
50.0%
Total % from revenue for management, utilities/maint., taxes and OTA fees.
Avg. Yearly Cost
$53,658
Average total operational costs per year in first 5 years.
Revenue vs Costs vs Net Profit
Avg. Annual Cost Breakdown — First 5 Years
| Expense |
Avg. / Year |
% of Rev. |
| Management Fee |
$16,098 |
15.0% |
| Utilities & Maintenance |
$10,732 |
10.0% |
| Taxes |
$10,732 |
10.0% |
| OTA Fees |
$16,098 |
15.0% |
| Total Operating Costs |
$53,658 |
50.0% |
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Insider tip: In addition to the costs above, consider $100–200 USD per year for Banjar tax and trash collection. These vary depending on which village your villa is located in and, like every other operational cost, are handled by the management company.
The following table shows your projected cash flow over time up to 10 years, along with the average occupancy rate, which fluctuates over time to simulate evolving seasons and thus a more realistic forecast.
| Year |
Revenue |
Op. Costs |
Op. Net Profit |
Add. Cost |
Cash Flow (Net) |
Avg. Occ. |
| 1 | $104,431 | $52,215 | $52,215 | — | -$474,785 | 77.9% |
| 2 | $101,180 | $50,590 | $50,590 | — | -$424,195 | 74.0% |
| 3 | $106,835 | $53,418 | $53,418 | — | -$370,777 | 77.3% |
| 4 | $103,484 | $51,742 | $51,742 | — | -$319,035 | 72.9% |
| 5 | $120,653 | $60,327 | $60,327 | — | -$258,708 | 76.2% |
| 6 | $114,991 | $57,496 | $57,496 | — | -$201,213 | 78.5% |
| 7 | $119,453 | $59,727 | $59,727 | — | -$141,486 | 68.2% |
| 8 | $114,992 | $57,496 | $57,496 | — | -$83,990 | 71.7% |
| 9 | $129,518 | $64,759 | $64,759 | — | -$19,231 | 73.8% |
| 10 | $119,057 | $59,528 | $59,528 | — | $40,298 | 74.1% |
| Showing 10 of 32 years. |
Scenario Analysis
The following is the stress test for this villa. It shows three different cases for your villa venture, aiming to illustrate various market conditions and potential outcomes of your investment.
Worst Case
Average Daily Rate$350
Avg. Occupancy65.4%
Est. Payback11.7 yrs
5-yr Net Yield8.6%
Average Case
Average Daily Rate$389
Avg. Occupancy75.7%
Est. Payback9.3 yrs
5-yr Net Yield10.7%
Best Case
Average Daily Rate$427
Avg. Occupancy85.9%
Est. Payback7.6 yrs
5-yr Net Yield13.1%
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Insider tip: If your worst case yields between 8–10%, your property still generates more income than many traditional real estate markets worldwide.
The following chart plots the three cases (worst, average and best) and aims to provide an idea of your operational band, where the worst is the floor (red) and the best is the ceiling (green). This is realistically the range in which you will operate over time.
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Insider tip: The management company or operator you choose will make the real difference. A well-managed, poorly designed property can be a gold mine in the right hands and the opposite is equally true.
Cumulative Cash Flow Comparison
Exit Strategy — 5 Years Then Sell
This scenario models operating the villa for 5 years and then selling it as an active rental business. The resale value is based on the average net operational profit of the first 5 years. For a prospective buyer, what matters most is the cash flow the business generates, not the physical asset, due to the nature of how leasehold properties work.
This model intentionally excludes any land or building appreciation. Adding such figures would be speculative and too easy to manipulate with arbitrary growth assumptions.
Note on seasonality: To reflect true investment potential for a prospective buyer, this strategy assumes the property is rented full-time for the entire year (no owner occupation). It uses a standard Bali seasonality profile: High (Jun, Jul, Aug, Dec), Mid (Jan, Feb, May, Sep), and Low (Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov).
| Year | Revenue | Op. Costs | Op. Net Profit | Add. Cost | Cash Flow (Strategy) |
| 1 | $96,042 | $48,021 | $48,021 | — | -$478,979 |
| 2 | $97,963 | $48,982 | $48,982 | — | -$429,997 |
| 3 | $99,923 | $49,961 | $49,961 | — | -$380,036 |
| 4 | $101,921 | $50,961 | $50,961 | — | -$329,075 |
| 5 | $103,959 | $51,980 | $51,980 | — | $102,447 (incl. net resale) |
Est. Sale Price
$421,714
Based on avg. 5-yr net profit x 10 multiplier, adjusted for remaining lease. Net to seller after 10% tax: $379,542
Strategy ROI
19.4%
Total return on investment (incl. additional costs) after 5 years operations and net resale.
Strategy Net Profit
$102,447
Total net profit of this 5-year strategy, after all costs and net resale.
Scenario Input Parameters
Core assumptions used to generate all financial projections in this report.
Core Property & Operations
Property price$527,000
Lease years32 years
Rental modeShort-Term
Daily rate (high)$450
Daily rate (low)$325
Occupancy (STR)80.0%
Occupancy (low)66.0%
Cost Structure
Management fee15.0%
Utilities & maintenance10.0%
Taxes10.0%
OTA fees15.0%
Total cost ratio50.0%
Growth & Market Dynamics
Annual inflationActive (2.0%)
Occupancy fluctuationActive
1st year revenue penalty8.0%
Annual base growth trend2.0%
Max random fluctuation8.0%
5-Year Resale Strategy
Resale strategyActive
Resale multiplier10x Avg. 5-yr Net Profit
Sale tax on resale10.0%
Agency commissionInactive
Important considerations: Financial projections in this report have been created by The Bali Homes in collaboration with Arthabase, using inputs from market analysis and advisor experience. Real-world performance can be influenced by factors not explicitly modeled (location, management, economic changes, etc.). This report aims for a realistic, slightly pessimistic view to support critical decision-making. Discuss these projections with your agent for tailored advice on your investment goals.
